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Predicting Cotton Yield under Future Climate Scenarios Using Machine Learning Techniques
The increasing menace of climate change constitutes a profound obstacle for contemporary farming, carrying grave implications for worldwide food availability. The effect of altering climatic parameters on agricultural output, particularly for essential staple commodities, fuels worry regarding prospective harvests. This investigation explores the likely repercussions of climate change on cotton cultivation by merging archival climate records, Global Climate Model (GCMs, CMIP3) forecasts, and cotton production statistics. A broad spectrum of machine learning (ML) methodologies is applied, including multiple regression, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), boosted tree techniques, and several variants of artificial neural networks (ANNs), to delve into the intricate linkage between climatic drivers and cotton productivity. The models are built and verified using climatic and crop output data obtained from three districts within Punjab, Pakistan, across the timeframe 1991 to 2020. To anticipate future production outcomes, climatic projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) are refined via downscaling under the SRA1B, A2, and B1 emission trajectories, facilitating outlooks extending to 2050. The outcomes reveal that precipitation exerts a trivial influence on cotton output (R = 0.0002), while peak temperature (R = -0.183) stands out as the foremost climatic determinant shaping yield, trailed by lowest temperature (R = 0.248). Of the tested architectures, the generalized feedforward (GFF) network delivered the optimal results (R = 0.960, MSE = 0.110, NMSE = 0.187, MAE = 0.269), exceeding the performance of the probabilistic neural network (PNN), KNN, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and boosted trees. By comparison, linear regression (LR) and multiple regression formulations registered weaker predictive power. The trustworthiness of GFF and KNN for generating yield projections (R² = 0.892, 0.861) endorses their suitability for reliable forecasting. The study calculates a 4.5% contraction in cotton harvest by 2050, measured against the peak recorded yield for the locality, stressing the footprint of climate change on cotton farming and its latent hazard to food supply. Nonetheless, the flexible strength of the ANN (GFF) frameworks under varying climate storylines delivers auspicious means for weaving ML into climate-adaptive cultivation regimes, advancing durable agrarian safety and curbing the detrimental fallout of climate shifts on nutrition provision.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2022 | Article: 51

Integrating UAV-Based Spectral Features and Machine Learning for Tomato Yield Prediction across Growth Stages
Reliable estimation of crop yield is vital for refining farming operations and guaranteeing food supply. This investigation tested the capacity of machine learning techniques to estimate tomato yield using meteorological measurements, spectral reflectance bands, and vegetation indices subjected to different nitrogen levels and bio-stimulant applications to generate variation in crop development. UAV-mounted sensors captured spectral information across seven acquisition dates spanning October 27 to December 15, 2023, matching critical developmental windows: vegetative establishment (acquisition 1), anthesis (acquisitions 2 and 3), fruit set and enlargement (acquisitions 4, 5, and 6), and initial maturation (acquisition 7). Discriminating explanatory variables were selected via the Pearson correlation metric (r > 0.65, P < 0.05), incorporating Near Infrared (NIR), Red Edge, and Red wavebands, together with vegetation indices comprising NDVI, GNDVI, NDRE, and SAVI. Remotely sensed canopy signatures gathered throughout the fruit set and enlargement window (acquisitions 5 and 6) displayed the tightest association with harvested yield (r = 0.66–0.74), reinforcing the necessity of spectral intelligence from the middle to latter parts of the cycle. When comparing predictive algorithms, both linear regression (LR) and XGBoost yielded the strongest predictive skill, producing root mean squared error (RMSE) figures of 16.13 kg and 16.15 kg, respectively, matched with R² values reaching 0.63. Support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT) implementations also delivered competent outcomes, achieving RMSE scores of 17.15 kg and 17.18 kg, respectively. By comparison, the deep learning architecture lagged notably (RMSE = 23.49 kg, R² = 0.23), plausibly attributable to data scarcity. This research spotlights the prognostic capability inherent in spectral wavebands and underscores the centrality of growth-stage-aligned spectral acquisition for yield forecasting.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2022 | Article: 52

An Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Avocado Ripeness Detection Based on Near-Infrared Spectral Data
Precise categorization of avocado ripeness plays a vital role in strengthening post-harvest operations and curbing waste throughout agricultural supply networks. The present study centers on constructing a resilient ensemble classification framework employing spectral readings from 120 kilograms of Buccaneer avocados procured from the Royal Project in Chiang Mai, Thailand. The specimens were assessed via near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy at 18 wavelengths. Five distinct machine learning models—Random Forest, Decision Tree, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Gaussian Mixture Model—were separately trained and subsequently fused into a unified ensemble. Four distinct algorithms were deployed to fine-tune the weighting of each model: Bayesian optimisation, differential evolution, particle swarm optimisation, and grid search. Evaluation metrics covering accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, confusion matrices, and ROC curves were applied. Grid Search yielded the strongest classification outcomes, securing an accuracy of 82.5% alongside an F1-score of 85.3%, emphasizing the value of weight-refined ensemble learning relative to standalone classifiers. This investigation delivers a scalable and transparent pipeline for non-destructive ripeness identification. The outcomes, notwithstanding constraints related to overfitting and dependency on spectral data integrity, pave the way for eventual real-time field deployment in agriculture.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Review | Open access | 15 March 2023 | Article: 66

Meta-Learning and Utility-Based Regression for Accurate Actual Evapotranspiration Estimation: Insights from Ameriflux and Euroflux Sites
The quantification of actual evapotranspiration (ETₐ) is fundamental to sound water resource governance, yet current estimation methods pose significant constraints. Established methodologies, among them eddy covariance and energy balance computations reliant on remote sensing, are frequently beset by prohibitive costs, patchy spatial and temporal coverage, and deteriorating forecast fidelity, particularly for older empirical constructs. Although machine learning has emerged as a viable solution, it is not without drawbacks, especially a systematic bias toward low ETₐ predictions during high-temperature episodes. We trace this deficiency to inadequate model training on the scarce but critically significant extreme ETₐ values, paired with meteorological datasets that are limited rather than massive. Within this paper, we illustrate how few-shot, meta-learning frameworks (MAML), purpose-built to deliver superior generalization when data are constrained, can eclipse elementary machine learning formulations in the upscaling of ETₐ originating from two major in-situ observation networks, namely Ameriflux and Euroflux. Working with a sparse set of remotely sensed land surface variables sourced from the METRIC-EEFlux system alongside a narrow suite of climatic drivers, we establish that the selected models yield measurable benefits when assessed under the utility-based regression philosophy, guiding meaningful real-world decisions. Our preliminary findings show that EEflux ETₐ strays markedly from in-situ tower readings from the Ameriflux and EEflux installations (R² = 39%). By comparison, MAML attains the strongest alignment with ETₐ, outperforming both elementary machine learning architectures and EEFlux (R² = 71% on the full test corpus, R² = 0.88 under the Csa climate class, R² = 0.79 under the Cfa climate class, and R² = 0.78 for the CSH vegetation category), and steadily improves without succumbing to overfitting even when trained on a comparatively modest data pool. Its elevated F2 score (96%) indicates that MAML maintains high precision and recall for atypical instances, a feature of considerable consequence for irrigation scheduling. As a noteworthy result in its own right, this investigation corroborates that even a sparse set of remotely sensed EEflux outputs contributes materially to understanding ground-referenced ETₐ and can thus serve a valuable role in environments where the procurement of abundant, high-quality data is limited.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 September 2023 | Article: 79

Machine Learning-Based Detection of Multidimensional Cattle Behavior Using Sensor Data
The advancement of motion-sensor technology for observing cattle behavior has enabled farmers to assess their animals’ welfare more efficiently. Whereas the bulk of existing research focuses on single-dimensional outputs and separate behavioural classifications, superior predictive precision can be achieved by integrating intricate movements and enhancing sensor algorithms that detect multidimensional activity, that is, more than one movement executed concurrently. This article presents a machine-learning methodology for analyzing overlapping yet independent motions. The system’s output comprises automatically identified complex behaviour sequences that may be used to gauge animal welfare, forecast calving, or detect early disease indicators. The investigation pairs automated motion-sensing equipment (namely, a halter and a pedometer) developed for ruminants and sold under the name RumiWatch with video-based surveillance. It places it upon a Charolais fattening bull. Fourteen distinct categories of complex motion were catalogued: defecating-urinating, eating, drinking, getting up, head movement, licking, lying down, lying, playing-aggression, rubbing, ruminating, sleeping, standing, and stepping. Owing to the deployment of several parallel binary classifiers, the platform proved capable of identifying concurrent behavioural patterns with high fidelity. Two machine learning methods, Support Vector Classification (SVC) and Random Forest, were applied to distinguish various generalised and non-generalised motion types. Outputs produced by these two supervised learning frameworks were placed side by side for comparison. An uninterrupted forty-eight-hour video stream was labelled to serve as training material for the systems and to corroborate their predictive outputs. The performance levels of both classifiers in pinpointing specific motions, whether using both sensors or each sensor individually, and under varying parameter configurations (i.e., window size and padding), were scrutinised. Although the two classifiers yielded divergent results, the optimised parameter configurations indicated that each motion category exhibited by the subject animal was successfully identified with substantial accuracy. Further research encompassing a greater number of individual subjects and different ruminant species would broaden the knowledge base regarding improvements to the system’s efficacy and precision.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 September 2023 | Article: 82

Spectral–Spatial Machine Learning for Early Detection of Dutch Elm Disease Using Hyperspectral Leaf Imaging
Forest health is under mounting pressure from diseases driven by invasive pathogens, and the ability to detect these diseases early and precisely is vital for targeted, prompt forest management. Breakthroughs in spectral imaging and artificial intelligence have paved the way for novel approaches to plant disease identification in both crop and tree species. The present study employed the Dutch elm disease (DED; caused by Ophiostoma novo-ulmi) and American elm (Ulmus americana) pathosystem as a model to test the efficacy of two custom-fabricated, high-precision, portable hyper- and multispectral leaf scanners, paired with machine learning, as innovative instruments for forest disease surveillance. Hyper- and multispectral imagery was collected from leaves of American elm genotypes with varying degrees of disease susceptibility following mock inoculation and inoculation with O. novo-ulmi in controlled greenhouse conditions. Both classical machine learning and cutting-edge deep learning architectures were trained on extracted spectra and directly on spectral image volumes. Deep learning frameworks that leverage combined spectral and spatial information from high-definition spectral leaf images surpass classical machine learning approaches that rely exclusively on spectral data for DED identification. Within the deep learning framework, leaf margins and symptomatic lesions were accentuated as discriminative spatial cues for separating leaves originating from inoculated versus mock-inoculated specimens. Furthermore, the spectral and spatial signature profiles uncovered by the machine learning-based models corresponded to the DED susceptibility levels of the elm genotypes. While supplementary investigations are warranted to gauge transferability across other pathosystems, hyper- and multispectral leaf scanners integrated with machine learning show considerable promise as emerging tools for disease phenotyping in tree species.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2025 | Article: 107

Deep Learning Approaches for Temperature-Driven Estimation of Reference Evapotranspiration
Properly managing water application in urban plantings is essential throughout arid and semi-arid regions and depends upon consistently accurate calculations of reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The meteorological observations obtainable in city landscapes, however, are rarely sufficient to apply the standard Penman-Monteith methodology for ETo derivation. Intelligent landscape irrigation controllers thus often rely on temperature-driven ETo approximations to automate watering schedules. The present study is directed at crafting deep learning temperature-based ETo predictors and contrasting their accuracy against two widely adopted empirical temperature-based formulas, specifically the FAO Blaney and Criddle (BC) and Hargreaves and Samani (HS). A complementary, freely available, and intuitive software utility, DeepET, was also developed based on the highest-performing deep learning predictors produced in this work. Four classes of artificial neural network (ANN) predictors were assembled, one group operating on raw weather observations and a second group utilizing wavelet-transformed reconstructed signals as input features. Additionally, long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (NN) and one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) predictors were built. The dataset underpinning this work was sourced from 101 operational California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) weather stations, yielding more than 725,000 data points spanning 1985-2019. All predictors were benchmarked against the officially reported CIMIS ETo. When tested on previously unseen station records, the temperature-fed DL (Deep Learning) predictors yielded mean absolute errors that were 15%–20% lower than those from the locally calibrated HS equation. Feeding reconstructed wavelet-transform signals into the ANN predictors did not yield any measurable gain. Our findings suggest that DL-based predictors constitute a compelling approach to improving ETo accuracy in urban settings when only temperature readings are available. The DeepET utility is reachable from the Haghverdi Water Management Group portal: http://www. ucrwater.com/software-and-tools.html.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2025 | Article: 113

Machine Learning-Based Classification of Dry Bean Seeds Enhanced by Data Mining Techniques
In agricultural production and yield, product quality certification is a critical procedure. Older methodologies for grading seed quality suffer from drawbacks such as overly complex workflows, limited accuracy, and slow inspection rates at high output volumes. Automated sorting methods based on computer vision and machine learning offer swift, high-capacity alternatives. Even with the substantial breakthroughs in modern automatic classification models, there remains a need to advance these systems by integrating other approaches. This study details the creation of a computer vision platform for autonomously sorting diverse seed types. It relies on machine learning frameworks and data mining procedures, using a collection of geometric descriptors of bean seeds derived from binary imagery. A comparison was drawn among three machine learning strategies: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). The workflow also included Principal Component Analysis (PCA), hyperparameter optimization within machine learning algorithms, and dataset rectification using the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). Findings revealed that data mining operations—namely Principal Component Analysis, hyperparameter optimization, and the SMOTE approach—improve the quality of classification outputs. The KNN classifier delivered the strongest showing, attaining close to 95% accuracy alongside 96% precision and recall. The top-tier outcomes were achieved by performing hyperparameter optimization and applying the SMOTE method during data preparation, resulting in a gain of roughly 2.6%. The results validated that integrating data mining into the preprocessing stage and machine learning classification approaches can effectively and swiftly improve sorting accuracy and facilitate automated selection of bean seeds from digital images. This assists small-scale growers and agricultural overseers in making decisions about seed selection to increase yields.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2025 | Article: 115

Machine Learning–Based Nutrient Optimization for Plant Growth in Aquaponic Irrigation Using Small Training Datasets
In light of ongoing trends in metropolitan farming and global climate shifts, there is a growing need for alternative plant cultivation strategies that can operate independently of soil. Aquaponic and hydroponic growing methods have proven workable replacements, yet the scarcity of streamlined, ideal procedures for watering and nutrient delivery curtails their deployment at a mass commercial scale. The primary objective of this investigation was to develop statistical techniques and Machine Learning models to adjust nutrient levels in aquaponic irrigation systems in response to crop demand, thereby securing peak plant performance and facilitating wider commercial uptake of aquaponic farming. A core difficulty in crafting these models is the thinness of available data, which calls for the application of Bolstered error estimation methodologies. This paper assesses a range of linear and non-linear algorithms conditioned on comparatively small data sets using bolstered error estimation techniques to identify the superior approach for guiding nutrient control decisions in hydroponic contexts. Upon conducting multiple tests on the data, it was concluded that the Semi-Bolstered Resubstitution Error estimation strategy yields the best results in our scenario, using a Linear Support Vector Machine as the categorizer with a penalty factor of 1. A series of suggested directives was developed as a Decision Support System, derived from the Machine Learning model’s outputs, and verified against the baseline framework’s findings. Moreover, the constructive influence of the recommended nutrient mixtures on plant growth in aquaponic conditions is examined in detail.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 September 2025 | Article: 124

Detection of Cattle Urination and Defecation Events Using Non-Invasive Accelerometer Sensors and Machine Learning
Leaching losses of nitrogen (N) from grazed pasture are driven predominantly by urinary N deposited by cattle. This work aimed to use non-invasive accelerometer-based sensors to capture the timing and duration of urination and defecation events in grazing cattle. To register the back arching motion that accompanies urination and defecation, each cow was fitted with two accelerometer sensors. Experiments took place outdoors under grazing conditions during two seasons—autumn and summer—and captured a total of 160 urination events. Across the majority of these events, the tilt angle was observed to shift within a range of 8 to 22.5 degrees. Using 18 selected features that characterise a cow's back arching, ensemble machine learning classifiers were constructed to recognise urination and defecation. The urination classifier delivered an F1 score of 0.80 (harmonic mean computed from a precision of 0.82 and a sensitivity of 0.78). In contrast, the defecation classifier gave an F1 score of 0.73 (calculated from 408 hours of recordings made between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. from 19 cows). Predictive models for urination event duration were statistically significant. Still, they underperformed, with low explanatory power, in part because the relationship between the duration of back arching and the duration of urine passage was only moderate (R² values of 0.29 in autumn and 0.47 in summer). The work highlights that non-invasive accelerometer sensing has real promise for capturing individual cows' urination patterns and for generating animal-level information that farm decision support systems (such as those addressing urine-N excretion) and managerial actions (such as selective culling or breeding) could use as input.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 September 2025 | Article: 125

Data Science in Precision Agriculture: A Bibliometric and Thematic Review of Research Evolution, Knowledge Structures, and Emerging Frontiers
Data science has become a central analytical foundation of precision agriculture, enabling researchers and practitioners to transform heterogeneous farm, crop, soil, climate, machinery, sensor, and remote-sensing data into decision-relevant knowledge. This original bibliometric and thematic review examines how precision agriculture data science has evolved as a research field, how its knowledge structures are organized, and which methodological and application frontiers are shaping its future direction. The review follows a transparent bibliometric logic by distinguishing database searching, eligibility screening, metadata cleaning, keyword normalization, bibliometric indicators, thematic mapping, and interpretive synthesis. Because verified database-export counts were not available in the present working environment, the manuscript does not report invented publication totals, citation rankings, cluster sizes, or network metrics. Instead, it develops a cautious bibliometric-thematic framework grounded in the approved reference set and in clearly stated methodological safeguards. The review focuses on research evolution from early sensor analytics and remote observation toward machine learning, deep learning, big data, IoT-enabled systems, data fusion, decision support, and sustainable smart farming. It also examines knowledge structures around journals, keywords, co-occurrence logic, thematic clusters, and emerging research fronts. The main contribution is an integrated synthesis of precision agriculture data science as a field shaped by technical innovation, methodological fragmentation, data-quality constraints, interoperability challenges, explainability needs, reproducibility demands, and farmer-centered implementation concerns. The review provides a future agenda for more robust, transparent, usable, and responsible data science in precision agriculture.
Journal of Smart Farming, Precision Agriculture and Data Science
Review | Open access | 25 May 2025 | Article: 83