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Predicting Cotton Yield under Future Climate Scenarios Using Machine Learning Techniques
The increasing menace of climate change constitutes a profound obstacle for contemporary farming, carrying grave implications for worldwide food availability. The effect of altering climatic parameters on agricultural output, particularly for essential staple commodities, fuels worry regarding prospective harvests. This investigation explores the likely repercussions of climate change on cotton cultivation by merging archival climate records, Global Climate Model (GCMs, CMIP3) forecasts, and cotton production statistics. A broad spectrum of machine learning (ML) methodologies is applied, including multiple regression, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), boosted tree techniques, and several variants of artificial neural networks (ANNs), to delve into the intricate linkage between climatic drivers and cotton productivity. The models are built and verified using climatic and crop output data obtained from three districts within Punjab, Pakistan, across the timeframe 1991 to 2020. To anticipate future production outcomes, climatic projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) are refined via downscaling under the SRA1B, A2, and B1 emission trajectories, facilitating outlooks extending to 2050. The outcomes reveal that precipitation exerts a trivial influence on cotton output (R = 0.0002), while peak temperature (R = -0.183) stands out as the foremost climatic determinant shaping yield, trailed by lowest temperature (R = 0.248). Of the tested architectures, the generalized feedforward (GFF) network delivered the optimal results (R = 0.960, MSE = 0.110, NMSE = 0.187, MAE = 0.269), exceeding the performance of the probabilistic neural network (PNN), KNN, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and boosted trees. By comparison, linear regression (LR) and multiple regression formulations registered weaker predictive power. The trustworthiness of GFF and KNN for generating yield projections (R² = 0.892, 0.861) endorses their suitability for reliable forecasting. The study calculates a 4.5% contraction in cotton harvest by 2050, measured against the peak recorded yield for the locality, stressing the footprint of climate change on cotton farming and its latent hazard to food supply. Nonetheless, the flexible strength of the ANN (GFF) frameworks under varying climate storylines delivers auspicious means for weaving ML into climate-adaptive cultivation regimes, advancing durable agrarian safety and curbing the detrimental fallout of climate shifts on nutrition provision.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2022 | Article: 51

Integrating UAV-Based Spectral Features and Machine Learning for Tomato Yield Prediction across Growth Stages
Reliable estimation of crop yield is vital for refining farming operations and guaranteeing food supply. This investigation tested the capacity of machine learning techniques to estimate tomato yield using meteorological measurements, spectral reflectance bands, and vegetation indices subjected to different nitrogen levels and bio-stimulant applications to generate variation in crop development. UAV-mounted sensors captured spectral information across seven acquisition dates spanning October 27 to December 15, 2023, matching critical developmental windows: vegetative establishment (acquisition 1), anthesis (acquisitions 2 and 3), fruit set and enlargement (acquisitions 4, 5, and 6), and initial maturation (acquisition 7). Discriminating explanatory variables were selected via the Pearson correlation metric (r > 0.65, P < 0.05), incorporating Near Infrared (NIR), Red Edge, and Red wavebands, together with vegetation indices comprising NDVI, GNDVI, NDRE, and SAVI. Remotely sensed canopy signatures gathered throughout the fruit set and enlargement window (acquisitions 5 and 6) displayed the tightest association with harvested yield (r = 0.66–0.74), reinforcing the necessity of spectral intelligence from the middle to latter parts of the cycle. When comparing predictive algorithms, both linear regression (LR) and XGBoost yielded the strongest predictive skill, producing root mean squared error (RMSE) figures of 16.13 kg and 16.15 kg, respectively, matched with R² values reaching 0.63. Support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT) implementations also delivered competent outcomes, achieving RMSE scores of 17.15 kg and 17.18 kg, respectively. By comparison, the deep learning architecture lagged notably (RMSE = 23.49 kg, R² = 0.23), plausibly attributable to data scarcity. This research spotlights the prognostic capability inherent in spectral wavebands and underscores the centrality of growth-stage-aligned spectral acquisition for yield forecasting.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 March 2022 | Article: 52

An Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Avocado Ripeness Detection Based on Near-Infrared Spectral Data
Precise categorization of avocado ripeness plays a vital role in strengthening post-harvest operations and curbing waste throughout agricultural supply networks. The present study centers on constructing a resilient ensemble classification framework employing spectral readings from 120 kilograms of Buccaneer avocados procured from the Royal Project in Chiang Mai, Thailand. The specimens were assessed via near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy at 18 wavelengths. Five distinct machine learning models—Random Forest, Decision Tree, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Gaussian Mixture Model—were separately trained and subsequently fused into a unified ensemble. Four distinct algorithms were deployed to fine-tune the weighting of each model: Bayesian optimisation, differential evolution, particle swarm optimisation, and grid search. Evaluation metrics covering accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, confusion matrices, and ROC curves were applied. Grid Search yielded the strongest classification outcomes, securing an accuracy of 82.5% alongside an F1-score of 85.3%, emphasizing the value of weight-refined ensemble learning relative to standalone classifiers. This investigation delivers a scalable and transparent pipeline for non-destructive ripeness identification. The outcomes, notwithstanding constraints related to overfitting and dependency on spectral data integrity, pave the way for eventual real-time field deployment in agriculture.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Review | Open access | 15 March 2023 | Article: 66

Meta-Learning and Utility-Based Regression for Accurate Actual Evapotranspiration Estimation: Insights from Ameriflux and Euroflux Sites
The quantification of actual evapotranspiration (ETₐ) is fundamental to sound water resource governance, yet current estimation methods pose significant constraints. Established methodologies, among them eddy covariance and energy balance computations reliant on remote sensing, are frequently beset by prohibitive costs, patchy spatial and temporal coverage, and deteriorating forecast fidelity, particularly for older empirical constructs. Although machine learning has emerged as a viable solution, it is not without drawbacks, especially a systematic bias toward low ETₐ predictions during high-temperature episodes. We trace this deficiency to inadequate model training on the scarce but critically significant extreme ETₐ values, paired with meteorological datasets that are limited rather than massive. Within this paper, we illustrate how few-shot, meta-learning frameworks (MAML), purpose-built to deliver superior generalization when data are constrained, can eclipse elementary machine learning formulations in the upscaling of ETₐ originating from two major in-situ observation networks, namely Ameriflux and Euroflux. Working with a sparse set of remotely sensed land surface variables sourced from the METRIC-EEFlux system alongside a narrow suite of climatic drivers, we establish that the selected models yield measurable benefits when assessed under the utility-based regression philosophy, guiding meaningful real-world decisions. Our preliminary findings show that EEflux ETₐ strays markedly from in-situ tower readings from the Ameriflux and EEflux installations (R² = 39%). By comparison, MAML attains the strongest alignment with ETₐ, outperforming both elementary machine learning architectures and EEFlux (R² = 71% on the full test corpus, R² = 0.88 under the Csa climate class, R² = 0.79 under the Cfa climate class, and R² = 0.78 for the CSH vegetation category), and steadily improves without succumbing to overfitting even when trained on a comparatively modest data pool. Its elevated F2 score (96%) indicates that MAML maintains high precision and recall for atypical instances, a feature of considerable consequence for irrigation scheduling. As a noteworthy result in its own right, this investigation corroborates that even a sparse set of remotely sensed EEflux outputs contributes materially to understanding ground-referenced ETₐ and can thus serve a valuable role in environments where the procurement of abundant, high-quality data is limited.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 September 2023 | Article: 79

Machine Learning-Based Detection of Multidimensional Cattle Behavior Using Sensor Data
The advancement of motion-sensor technology for observing cattle behavior has enabled farmers to assess their animals’ welfare more efficiently. Whereas the bulk of existing research focuses on single-dimensional outputs and separate behavioural classifications, superior predictive precision can be achieved by integrating intricate movements and enhancing sensor algorithms that detect multidimensional activity, that is, more than one movement executed concurrently. This article presents a machine-learning methodology for analyzing overlapping yet independent motions. The system’s output comprises automatically identified complex behaviour sequences that may be used to gauge animal welfare, forecast calving, or detect early disease indicators. The investigation pairs automated motion-sensing equipment (namely, a halter and a pedometer) developed for ruminants and sold under the name RumiWatch with video-based surveillance. It places it upon a Charolais fattening bull. Fourteen distinct categories of complex motion were catalogued: defecating-urinating, eating, drinking, getting up, head movement, licking, lying down, lying, playing-aggression, rubbing, ruminating, sleeping, standing, and stepping. Owing to the deployment of several parallel binary classifiers, the platform proved capable of identifying concurrent behavioural patterns with high fidelity. Two machine learning methods, Support Vector Classification (SVC) and Random Forest, were applied to distinguish various generalised and non-generalised motion types. Outputs produced by these two supervised learning frameworks were placed side by side for comparison. An uninterrupted forty-eight-hour video stream was labelled to serve as training material for the systems and to corroborate their predictive outputs. The performance levels of both classifiers in pinpointing specific motions, whether using both sensors or each sensor individually, and under varying parameter configurations (i.e., window size and padding), were scrutinised. Although the two classifiers yielded divergent results, the optimised parameter configurations indicated that each motion category exhibited by the subject animal was successfully identified with substantial accuracy. Further research encompassing a greater number of individual subjects and different ruminant species would broaden the knowledge base regarding improvements to the system’s efficacy and precision.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Original Research | Open access | 15 September 2023 | Article: 82

Machine Learning for Sustainable Agri-Food Transitions: A Systematic Review of Environmental, Economic, and Social Impact Pathways
Machine learning is increasingly applied across agri-food systems to support prediction, classification, optimisation, monitoring, and decision-making. These applications now extend from farm-level production to processing, logistics, consumption, and food-waste management. As data-intensive agriculture expands, machine learning is often presented as an enabling technology for sustainable agri-food transitions. Despite this promise, the sustainability evidence base remains fragmented. Many studies report improvements in model accuracy, prediction performance, or operational decision support, but they do not always specify how these technical gains translate into environmental, economic, or social outcomes. This creates uncertainty about whether machine learning contributes to sustainability transitions directly, indirectly, or only under particular implementation conditions. This systematic review examines how machine learning contributes to sustainable agri-food transitions through environmental, economic, and social impact pathways. It focuses on the relationship between machine learning methods, agri-food applications, and sustainability-relevant outcomes rather than treating model performance as an end in itself. The review asks where evidence is strongest, where it remains indirect, and how different pathways vary across production, processing, distribution, consumption, waste reduction, and governance. The review finds that environmental and economic pathways are more developed than social and equity pathways. Evidence is strongest where machine learning supports precision input management, yield forecasting, irrigation decision support, operational efficiency, supply-chain analytics, and food-waste reduction. However, stronger longitudinal evaluation, causal assessment, life-cycle integration, participatory design, and equity-sensitive governance are needed before machine learning can be judged as a reliable driver of sustainable agri-food transitions.
Journal of Intelligent Agriculture and Food Systems
Review | Open access | 15 March 2026 | Article: 29

Remote Sensing, Machine Learning, and Smart Farming: An Umbrella Review of Review-Level Evidence for Crop Monitoring, Disease Detection, and Yield Forecasting
Remote sensing and machine learning have become prominent components of smart farming research, generating an expanding body of review literature across agricultural monitoring and prediction applications. This umbrella review synthesises review-level evidence concerning crop monitoring, disease detection, yield forecasting, and decision support while examining the methodological conditions that shape evidence strength and transferability. Peer-reviewed systematic reviews, scoping reviews, structured reviews, surveys, meta-reviews, and other eligible review-level articles were identified through searches of major academic databases and publisher platforms. Evidence was organised by application domain, sensing modality, analytical method, validation design, generalisation, uncertainty, reproducibility, and decision-support relevance. Crop-monitoring reviews describe extensive use of satellite, unmanned aerial vehicle, multispectral, hyperspectral, thermal, and multimodal data for crop mapping, growth assessment, phenotyping, stress monitoring, and related applications. Disease-detection reviews report rapid expansion of image-based machine learning and deep learning, but repeatedly identify data scarcity, class imbalance, curated-image dependence, and limited cross-context validation. Yield-forecasting reviews identify recurring integration of remote sensing, weather, soil, crop-model, and management information, although forecast horizons, spatial and temporal validation, uncertainty communication, and decision relevance remain inconsistent. Across domains, reported technical promise is moderated by heterogeneous datasets, benchmark inconsistency, review overlap, incomplete reproducibility, and limited evidence of transfer across crops, regions, seasons, and acquisition conditions. Review-level evidence supports a substantial research opportunity for remote sensing and machine learning in smart farming, but it does not independently establish field readiness, diagnostic reliability, operational forecasting performance, or deployment readiness. Stronger review reporting, external validation, transparent benchmarking, uncertainty assessment, reproducible workflows, and responsible decision-support evaluation are required.
Journal of Smart Farming, Precision Agriculture and Data Science
Review | Open access | 25 May 2026 | Article: 101