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The increasing menace of climate change constitutes a profound obstacle for contemporary farming, carrying grave implications for worldwide food availability. The effect of altering climatic parameters on agricultural output, particularly for essential staple commodities, fuels worry regarding prospective harvests. This investigation explores the likely repercussions of climate change on cotton cultivation by merging archival climate records, Global Climate Model (GCMs, CMIP3) forecasts, and cotton production statistics. A broad spectrum of machine learning (ML) methodologies is applied, including multiple regression, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), boosted tree techniques, and several variants of artificial neural networks (ANNs), to delve into the intricate linkage between climatic drivers and cotton productivity. The models are built and verified using climatic and crop output data obtained from three districts within Punjab, Pakistan, across the timeframe 1991 to 2020. To anticipate future production outcomes, climatic projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) are refined via downscaling under the SRA1B, A2, and B1 emission trajectories, facilitating outlooks extending to 2050. The outcomes reveal that precipitation exerts a trivial influence on cotton output (R = 0.0002), while peak temperature (R = -0.183) stands out as the foremost climatic determinant shaping yield, trailed by lowest temperature (R = 0.248). Of the tested architectures, the generalized feedforward (GFF) network delivered the optimal results (R = 0.960, MSE = 0.110, NMSE = 0.187, MAE = 0.269), exceeding the performance of the probabilistic neural network (PNN), KNN, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and boosted trees. By comparison, linear regression (LR) and multiple regression formulations registered weaker predictive power. The trustworthiness of GFF and KNN for generating yield projections (R² = 0.892, 0.861) endorses their suitability for reliable forecasting. The study calculates a 4.5% contraction in cotton harvest by 2050, measured against the peak recorded yield for the locality, stressing the footprint of climate change on cotton farming and its latent hazard to food supply. Nonetheless, the flexible strength of the ANN (GFF) frameworks under varying climate storylines delivers auspicious means for weaving ML into climate-adaptive cultivation regimes, advancing durable agrarian safety and curbing the detrimental fallout of climate shifts on nutrition provision.

Cotton growth is severely threatened by Verticillium wilt, which has a considerable negative effect on yield. For this reason, prompt identification of stress-related disease is critically important. The current work explored how Verticillium wilt stress influences leaf microstructure and physiological metrics (SOD, POD, CAT, MDA, Chla, Chlb, Chlab, Car) in cotton and tested whether hyperspectral imaging could be used to estimate those leaf physiological metrics. Results revealed that disease-induced stress altered the cellular architecture of cotton leaves, leading to the breakdown and disintegration of chloroplasts and mitochondria. Moreover, infected leaves showed significantly higher SOD and POD activities, as well as elevated MDA levels, relative to their healthy counterparts, while chlorophyll and carotenoid concentrations dropped markedly. Furthermore, rapid-assessment models for cotton physiological metrics were built, with the strongest models attaining Rp values spanning 0.809 to 0.975. These models were then employed to generate visual maps of the distribution of physiological signatures over cotton leaf surfaces. The outcomes indicate that the physiological phenotype of cotton leaves can be reliably captured using hyperspectral imaging, providing a solid theoretical foundation for rapid identification of Verticillium wilt stress.

Acquiring data across many locations and enabling fast decision-making are strengths of hyperspectral measurements. Nevertheless, a range of data processing approaches (Savisky-Golay [SG], first derivative [FD], and normalization) and modeling frameworks (partial least squares regression [PLS], weighted k-nearest neighbor [KKNN], support vector machine [SVM], and random forest [RF]) can be applied to establish the strongest link between physical observations and hyperspectral signatures. In this study, FD emerged as the top processing technique, while SVM was the leading model for estimating mean cotton (Gossypium spp., Malvaceae) height and node counts. Conversely, the integration of FD with RF achieved the highest accuracy in predicting cotton leaf area index, canopy cover, and chlorophyll levels throughout the growing period. Furthermore, outputs from models built with both SVM and RF corresponded closely to the pseudo-CHIME satellite wavebands, a process in which field-collected hyperspectral data were adjusted to the spectral intervals of an anticipated spaceborne hyperspectral sensor. The knowledge and outcomes supplied here will equip growers and other players in the cotton sector to execute swift, well-informed actions that could foster higher productivity and sustainable intensification.