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Achieving food availability, advancing the long-term viability of farming, and propelling economic progress. However, current forecasting frameworks often overlook the specific characteristics of rice yield distributions, which vary across regions, exhibit skewness, and are constrained by fixed lower and upper thresholds, conforming to a four-parameter beta distribution. The consequence is outputs that are less reliable and can potentially misguide decision-making. Furthermore, a majority of techniques fall short in modeling the intricate variable interactions that arise when satellite observations are fused with field survey measurements, an integration widely viewed as essential for boosting forecast fidelity and streamlining cultivation methods. To remedy these deficiencies, the present research proposes a four-parameter beta Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and advances it into a four-parameter beta Generalized Mixed Effect Tree (GMET). This four-parameter beta GMET extends the four-parameter beta GLMM architecture by embedding a regression tree mechanism, thereby providing superior flexibility for representing non-linear and interaction-laden dependencies. Deploying this analytical framework on empirical data from Central Kalimantan and Karawang yields significant gains over earlier approaches, as evidenced by markedly lower AIC and RRMSE metrics. Significantly, the investigation finds that time-lagged reflectance values from bands 4 and 8 and the NDVI index captured by Sentinel-2A satellites are the dominant determinants of rice productivity, overshadowing the explanatory contribution of farmer questionnaire responses. This finding underscores the promise of remotely sensed data as a cornerstone for rice yield estimation, offering a more streamlined, less resource-intensive alternative to reliance on farmer-reported data. By further refining satellite-based technologies, upcoming initiatives in yield forecasting can realize superior efficiency and precision, thereby underpinning evidence-based choices in agricultural governance.

Artificial intelligence is increasingly positioned as a driver of agri-food transformation through sensing, prediction, optimisation, automation, and decision support. Across farms, supply chains, advisory systems, and governance settings, AI-enabled tools are changing how agricultural information is gathered, interpreted, and translated into action. These changes create important opportunities, but they also raise deeper theoretical questions about what kind of intelligence agri-food systems should develop. Much discussion of agri-food AI emphasises productivity, efficiency, technical accuracy, and optimisation. Yet sustainable agri-food transformation cannot be judged only by whether AI increases yields, lowers costs, or accelerates decisions. It must also be evaluated by whether intelligent systems strengthen resilience, support equity, and respect ecological limits. This article develops a theory of sustainable intelligence in agri-food systems. Sustainable intelligence is defined as the AI-enabled capacity of agri-food systems to sense, interpret, learn from, and respond to changing conditions while balancing productivity, resilience, equity, and ecological care. The theory treats these four dimensions not as separate goals, but as interdependent constructs that must be continuously aligned. The article builds theory by integrating scholarship on digital agriculture, food-system sustainability, resilience thinking, equity, ecological responsibility, and responsible AI. It focuses on the mechanisms through which sensing, prediction, optimisation, feedback, participation, and governance can either mediate or intensify tensions among agri-food system goals. In doing so, it shifts attention from AI as a technical instrument to AI as a socio-technical balancing capacity. The proposed theory explains sustainable intelligence as an emergent property of data integration, adaptive feedback, participatory governance, ecological sensitivity, and accountability. It argues that AI-enabled agri-food systems become sustainable not when they maximise a single performance metric, but when they help actors recognise trade-offs, negotiate priorities, and preserve the conditions for just and ecologically responsible production. Sustainable intelligence therefore offers a theoretical foundation for agri-food futures that are productive, resilient, equitable, and ecologically caring.