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Precise forecasting of watermelon harvest volumes is vital within the agricultural supply chain, since it informs the deployment of farming inputs and streamlines stock and logistical scheduling. Conventional harvest assessment depends predominantly on human effort, rendering it both labour-intensive and slow. To tackle this issue, the present study proposes an algorithmic workflow that leverages unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) video to identify and count watermelons. The workflow combines You Only Look Once version 8s (YOLOv8s) with image mosaicking and overlapping region division, which supports whole-field watermelon quantity estimation. The detection model, built on YOLOv8s and refined via transfer learning, achieved 99.20% detection accuracy, underscoring its suitability for crop forecasting. The counting strategy, which employs image mosaicking and overlapping region division, accepts stitched panoramas as input and significantly reduces double counting compared to the video-tracking-based detection and counting method. Counting accuracy exceeded 96.61%, indicating strong promise for yield forecasting applications. This elevated accuracy attests to the practicability of deploying the proposed approach for total harvest estimation across expansive watermelon cultivations.